by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2011 09:00:00 AM

This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Idles – Down 0.2 Percent in July

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation dipped 0.2 percent in July on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, offsetting some of the relatively strong 1.0 percent gain posted in June.

“In July, the U.S. economy remained in ‘she loves me, she loves me not’ mode,” said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “July’s result falls in the ‘she loves me not’ category and represents a continuation of the idling economic conditions that have persisted for over a year. Over this time period, bad news has been alternating with good, leaving investors and forecasters nervous and unable to identify sustainable trends.”

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the index since January 2000.

“Over time, the PCI has also proven to be a leading and amplified indicator of Industrial Production”, explained Craig Manson, senior vice president and Index expert for Ceridian. “For June, the PCI was anticipating Industrial Production to show modest growth of 0.17 percent. The government’s subsequent release on July 15, 2011 turned out to be 0.19 percent, which was almost identical to our forecast. This represented the fifth time in the past six months in which the monthly PCI forecast for U.S. Industrial Production was right in-line with the government’s subsequent report. Based on the weakness evident in the PCI over the last several months, our forecast calls for a flat performance in July Industrial Production when the government estimate is released on August 16.”
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The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ is based on real-time diesel fuel consumption data for over the road trucking ...

This index has mostly been moving sideways all year. Note: This index does appear to track Industrial Production over time (with plenty of noise).