by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2011 01:38:00 PM

I've been tracking the MBA mortgage purchase application index every week, and that index suggests a fairly sharp decline in mortgage purchase applications in August. That decline would normally suggest weaker home sales in September (seasonally adjusted), however that index doesn't include investors who usually pay cash ... and investors are very active in many markets.

Here is an example from the Las Vegas Sun: Realtors:

Las Vegas home prices off 8.6 percent from September 2010Las Vegas-area home ... sales stayed strong thanks to investors snapping up homes [the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors] ... said the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in September was 4,108. That was down from 4,693 sales in August – the second-best month ever for existing home sales in Southern Nevada.

But September’s sales total was up from 3,603 sales one year ago.

And from economist Tom Lawler on Las Vegas:

About 45% of last month’s sales were bank-owned properties, down from 50% in August, while short sales comprised 25% of September sales, up from 21% in August. Active listings in September totaled 25,995, down 4.6% from August and down 9.3% from a year ago

So even though the MBA index declined recently, existing home sales might still be fairly strong in September due to investor buying.