by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2011 08:15:00 PM

I've been following the Sacramento market to see the change in mix over time (conventional, REOs, and short sales) in a distressed area. The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009.

This will be interesting once something changes - and that hasn't happened yet. At some point, the number (and percent) of distressed sales should start to decline without market distortions.

The percent of distressed sales in Sacramento increased in October compared to September. In October 2011, 64.1% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This is up from 64.0% in September, and down slightly from 64.3% in October 2010.

Here are the statistics.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of REO, short sales and conventional sales. There is a seasonal pattern for conventional sales (strong in the spring and summer), and distressed sales happen all year - so the percentage of distressed sales decreases every summer and the increases in the fall and winter.

Total sales were up 19.6% compared to October 2010. Active Listing Inventory is down 34.6% from last October, although "short sale contingent" has increased. Cash buyers accounted for 28.7% of all sales (frequently investors), and mean/medium prices are off about 10% from last October.

Once the foreclosure delays end, this data might be helpful in determining when the market is improving. So far it looks like REO sales have declined slightly, offset by an increase in short sales, so overall there is no improvement.