by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2011 11:32:00 PM

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for September will be released next Tuesday, November 29th. Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries put out a forecast for the Case-Shiller HPI yesterday: Zillow Forecast: September Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.2% Decline from One Year Ago

Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.2% on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 2.8%. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from August to September will be -0.2% and 0.0% for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.
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"We expect to see continued home value depreciation as unemployment and negative equity remain high and as the pace of foreclosures, kept artificially low since the robo-signing controversy, increases again."

On an NSA basis, this would leave the 10-city composite about 3.9% above the post bubble low, and the 20-city composite about 3.5% above the post bubble low.

The CoreLogic (used by the Fed) index (NSA) for September was about 3.6% above the post bubble low.

However this would put the seasonally adjusted 20-City composite index at a new post-bubble low (and the 10-city would be just above a new low). Because the seasonal factor has been impacted by the high percentage of foreclosures, most people just report the NSA numbers - and the NSA numbers will probably not be at new lows until early next year.

But there is still a strong seasonal pattern to house prices, and it will be interesting if the SA numbers are at new lows ...