by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2012 01:49:00 PM

This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Increased 0.2 Percent in December

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, rose 0.2 percent in December following the 0.1 percent increase in November and the 1.1 percent increase in October.

Although December’s news is positive, the combined effect of the three consecutive positive months was not enough to offset the weakness of trucking last summer and the PCI in December 2011 is 1.2 percent below its June 2011 level.
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Based on the latest PCI data, the forecast for December Industrial Production is a 0.29 percent increase when the government estimate is released on January 18.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the index since January 2000.

This index declined sharply in late summer and has only partially rebounded over the last three months. Mostly this index moved sideways in 2011 (down 0.7% from December 2010).

Note: This index does appear to track Industrial Production over time (with plenty of noise).



All current Transportation graphs