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Monday, March 12, 2012

Report: New Bank Stress Test results expected by Thursday

by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2012 12:04:00 PM

From Nelson Schwartz at the NY Times: Latest Stress Tests Are Expected to Show Progress at Most Banks

[T]he Federal Reserve this week will release the results of its latest stress tests, which are expected to show broadly improved balance sheets at most institutions.
...
Unlike the findings of the last round of stress tests, which ended last March, the results of this round will be made public by the Federal Reserve, with an announcement expected by Thursday.
The stress test scenario was announced last November and is outlined here.

The stress tests assumed the unemployment rate will rise to 13% in 2013, that the Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index will decline by more than 50% from the November level. The scenario assumed that house prices would fall another 20%+, and bottom at almost 47% down from the peak.

Note: The Fed uses the CoreLogic index for house prices, and the index has declined over 4% since the stress test scenario was released in November, and the index was off 34% from the peak as of January.