by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2012 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 1.1% from January to February (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 6.5% from February 2011. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $407.8 billion, an increase of 1.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 6.5 percent (±0.7%) above February 2011. ... The December 2011 to January 2012 percent change was revised from 0.4 percent (±0.5)* to 0.6 percent (±0.2%).

Ex-autos, retail sales increased 0.9% in February.

Click on graph for larger image.

Sales for January were revised up from a 0.4% increase to a 0.6% increase.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 22.6% from the bottom, and now 7.8% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

The second graph shows the same data since 2006 (to show the recent changes). Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 18.8% from the bottom, and now 6.9% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The third graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.0% on a YoY basis (6.5% for all retail sales). Retail sales ex-gasoline increased 0.8% in February.

This was below the consensus forecast for retail sales of a 1.2% increase in February, but above the consensus for a 0.8% increase ex-auto.



All current retail sales graphs