by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2012 02:47:00 PM

Note: Remember the Case-Shiller report is for February (really an average of prices in December, January and February). This data is released with a significant lag, see: House Prices and Lagged Data

Zillow Forecast: February Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.4% Decline from One Year Ago

On Tuesday, April 24th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for February will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will decline by 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from January to February will be -0.1 percent and -0.2 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.

Zillow's forecasts for Case-Shiller have been pretty close, and I expect Case-Shiller will report house prices at a new post-bubble low in February.

One of the keys this year will be to watch the year-over-year change in the various house price indexes. The composite 10 and 20 indexes declined 3.9% and 3.8% respectively in January, after declining 4.1% in December. Zillow is forecasting a smaller year-over-year decline in February.

		Case Shiller Composite 10		Case Shiller Composite 20
		NSA	SA	NSA	SA
Case Shiller (year ago)	February 2011	152.38	154.86	139.06	141.57
Case-Shiller (last month)	January 2012	148.4	149.43	135.46	136.6
Zillow February Forecast	YoY	-3.5%	-3.5%	-3.4%	-3.4%
	MoM	-0.9%	-0.2%	-0.8%	-0.1%
Zillow Forecasts1		147.1	149.3	134.4	136.6
Post Bubble Lows		148.4	149.43	135.46	136.6
Date of Post Bubble Low		January 2012	January 2012	January 2012	January 2012
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts