by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2012 12:09:00 PM

Catching up ... This morning the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased slightly in March:

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during March 2012 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $808.1 billion, 0.1 percent (±1.4%) above the revised February estimate of $807.3 billion. The March figure is 6.0 percent (±1.9%) above the March 2011 estimate of $762.6 billion.

Private construction spending increased while public spending decreased:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $531.9 billion, 0.7 percent (±1.3%) above the revised February estimate of $528.1 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $244.1 billion in March, 0.7 percent (±1.3%) above the revised February estimate of $242.5 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $287.8 billion in March, 0.7 percent (±1.3%) above the revised February estimate of $285.7 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential spending is 64% below the peak in early 2006, and up 8.4% from the recent low. Non-residential spending is 30% below the peak in January 2008, and up about 18% from the recent low.

Public construction spending is now 15% below the peak in March 2009 and at a new post-bubble low.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, both private residential and non-residential construction spending are positive, but public spending is down on a year-over-year basis. The year-over-year improvements in private non-residential are mostly due to energy spending (power and electric).

The year-over-year improvement in private residential investment is an important change (the positive in 2010 was related to the tax credit), and this suggest the bottom is in for residential investment.
All Housing Investment and Construction Graphs