by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2012 09:37:00 PM

Tuesday will be a busy day with the release of several key economic indicators including retail sales, CPI, home builder confidence, and the NY Fed manufacturing survey:

• Retail sales for April will be released at 8:30 AM ET. Retail sales were very strong in February and March, increasing 1.1% and 0.8%, respectively. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.1% in April, and for retail sales ex-autos to increase 0.2%. This report could be weak. Note: The annual revision for retail sales was released on April 30th including new seasonal adjustments using the Census Bureau’s X-13ARIMA-SEATS (yes, a new model).

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Consumer Price Index for April will be released. The consensus is for no change in headline CPI (with the decline in energy prices) and for core CPI to increase 0.2%. From Merrill:

With gasoline prices peaking in early April, we expect headline CPI to soften, dropping 0.1% monthly, after a 0.3% rise in March. ... Overall, the annual headline CPI inflation rate is likely to decelerate in April to 2.2%, its slowest year-on-year rise since the rapid run-up in global oil prices in February 2011.

• Also at 8:30 am, the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for May will be released. The consensus is for a reading of 10.0, up from 6.6 in April (above zero is expansion).

• At 10 AM, the May NAHB home builder confidence survey will be released. The consensus is for a reading of 26, up slightly from 25 in April. Although this index has been increasing lately, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

• The Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales report for March will be released at 10 AM, and Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks at 9.30 AM: "Prescriptions for Housing Recovery".

For the monthly economic question contest: