by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2012 03:52:00 PM

Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 14.08 million SAAR in June. That is up 22% from June 2011, and up 2.6% from the sales rate last month (13.73 million SAAR in May 2012).

This was above the consensus forecast of 13.9 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for June (red, light vehicle sales of 14.08 million SAAR from Autodata Corp).

Click on graph for larger image.

June was the weakest month this year, and the year-over-year increase was large because of the impact of the tsunami and related supply chain issues in May 2011.

Sales have averaged a 14.28 million annual sales rate through the first half of 2012, up sharply from the same period of 2011.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

This shows the huge collapse in sales in the 2007 recession.

Sales will probably increase some more, but most of the recovery from the depth of the recession has already happened.