by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2012 08:26:00 PM

Retail sales were down 0.5% in June, and that led some forecasters to argue that the US economy was contracting. My view is the economy is still growing sluggishly. For July, expectations are for an increase in retail sales. Here are the economic releases scheduled for Tuesday:

• On Tuesday, at 7:30 AM ET, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 91.3 in July from 91.4 in June.

• At 8:30 AM, the Census Bureau will release Retail Sales for July. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.3% in July, and for retail sales ex-autos to increase 0.4%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for July will be released. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).

• At 10:00 AM, the Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales report for June (Business inventories) will be released. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in inventories.

For the August economic prediction contest: