by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2012 08:37:00 PM

First an excerpt from a research note by Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs:

At a minimum, we expect an extension of the forward rate guidance to "mid-2015" at the September 12-13 FOMC meeting. We also expect an eventual return to QE, although in terms of timing we believe that either December or early 2013 is still more likely than September.
...
The tone of the data has clearly improved a bit since the [last FOMC] meeting. ... we estimate that Q3 GDP is on track for a 2.4% annualized gain versus an advance estimate of 1.5% for Q2.

However, a return to QE in September is clearly possible if the upcoming data, especially the August employment report released on September 7, fall short of expectations or if financial conditions tighten again--e.g., in the wake of any disappointment around the European situation and the ECB meeting on September 6.

On Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, the BEA will release the 2nd estimate of Q2 GDP. The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.7% annualized in Q2, revised up from 1.5% in the advance release.

• At 10:00 AM, the Pending Home Sales Index for August will be released. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

• At 11:00 AM, the New York Fed will release the Q2 2012 Report on Household Debt and Credit

• 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book will be released. This is an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.


A question for the August economic prediction contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).