by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2012 08:36:00 AM

Each year I track seasonal retail hiring during October, November and December. This usually provides an early clue on holiday retail sales. Currently the NRF is forecasting about the same level of seasonal hiring as last year.

From the National Retail Federation: Expect Solid Growth This Holiday Season

Tempered by political and fiscal uncertainties but supported by signs of improvement in consumer confidence, holiday sales this year will increase 4.1 percent to $586.1 billion. NRF’s 2012 holiday forecast is higher than the 10-year average holiday sales increase of 3.5 percent.
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According to NRF, retailers are expected to hire between 585,000 and 625,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, which is comparable to the 607,500 seasonal employees they hired last year.

Last year was the highest level of seasonal hiring since 2007 (seasonal hiring was especially weak in 2008, and then improved some in 2009). There is also a shift towards online buying that is keeping down seasonal hiring.