by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2012 08:16:00 PM

The following table shows annual starts (total and single family) since 2005, an estimate for 2012, and a 2013 "consensus" based on several forecasts.  I expect another solid growth year for housing starts in 2013 (with the usual Congressional caveats).

Note: from 1959 through 2000, housing starts average 1.5 million per year. The forecasts for 2013 would still be the sixth lowest year since 1959, with only 2008 through 2012 lower.

Housing Starts (000s)
	Total	Change	Single Family	Change
2005	2,068.3	---	1,715.8	---
2006	1,800.9	-12.9%	1,465.4	-14.6%
2007	1,355.0	-24.8%	1,046.0	-28.6%
2008	905.5	-33.2%	622.0	-40.5%
2009	554.0	-38.8%	445.1	-28.4%
2010	586.9	5.9%	471.2	5.9%
2011	608.8	3.7%	430.6	-8.6%
20121	770.0	26%	530.0	23%
20132	960.0	25%	660.0	25%
12012 estimated. 2early 2013 consensus based on several forecasts

Wednesday economic releases:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for November will be released. The consensus is for total housing starts to decline to 865,000 Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in November, down from 894,000 in October. Note: In November 2011, housing starts were above 700,000 (SAAR) for the first time in several years - it was considered a blow out month. Now expectations are for starts to be up more than 20% from that level.

• During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).


Another question for the December economic prediction contest (Note: You can use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).