In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Friday, March 22, 2013

Cyprus Update

by Calculated Risk on 3/22/2013 11:20:00 AM

It is after 5 PM in Cyprus and Parliament is expected to vote soon ... on something.

From the Telegraph: Cyprus bail-out: live

[H]ere's what we think that proposal might look like, based on reports and rumours from journalists on the ground.

Laiki Bank - the island's second largest lender - is wound down. Depositors' first €100,000 are hived into the Bank of Cyprus. Everything else is put into a bad bank, and sold off, likely at a 20pc to 40pc discount. ... According to information on the spread of deposits, a 9.46pc levy - lower than the 9.9pc proposed in the Eurogroup's original plan - on deposits over €100,000 would do the trick.

Under such an arrangement, the biggest losers would be those with deposits over €100,000 in Laiki Bank, who could be charged a 9.46pc levy and have any deposit over €100,000 swallowed into the 'bad bank' and sold off at a discount, losing as much as 40pc of its value. ...

Does this mean the Bank of Cyprus is safe? For now, yes. But as we have seen from the draft banking bill, the government wants to give the Cypriot central bank powers to restructure any bank as it sees necessary- the ominous "any other measure" clause that blogger Yiannis Mouzakis helpfully translated from the Greek.

Not to mention the draconian capital controls included in the draft bill, among which are compulsory renewal of all time savings deposits upon maturity, conversion of current accounts to time deposits, ban or restrictions on non cash transactions.
And from the CyprusMail: Cyprus Crisis Update, Friday March 22nd
A solution to Cyprus’ bailout crisis within the framework set down by the European Union may be possible within "the next few hours", the ruling DISY deputy leader Averof Neophytou said.

"There is cautious optimism that in the next few hours we may be able to reach an agreed platform so parliament can approve these specific measures which will be consistent with the approach, the framework and the targets agreed at the last Eurogroup," Neophytou told reporters.