by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2013 04:15:00 PM

From Freddie Mac today: Mortgage Rates up on Signs of Improving Economy

The 30-year fixed averaged 3.63 percent, its highest reading since the week of August 23, 2012. The 30-year fixed hit its average all-time record low of 3.31 percent the week of November 21, 2012. ...

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.63 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending March 14, 2013, up from last week when it averaged 3.52 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.92 percent.

15-year FRM this week averaged 2.79 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.76 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.16 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the MBA's refinance index (monthly average) and the the 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.

The Freddie Mac survey started in 1971 and mortgage rates are currently near the record low for the last 40 years.

This shows the recent small increase in mortgage rates.  This probably means refinance activity will slow in 2013.  Note: There has been an increase in refinance activity due to HARP.

Here is an update to an old graph - by request - that shows the relationship between the 10 year Treasury Yield and 30 year mortgage rates. 

Currently the 10 year Treasury yield is 2.02% and 30 year mortgage rates are at 3.63%.  If the ten year yield stay in this range, 30 year mortgage rates might move up a little from here.


The third graph shows the 15 and 30 year fixed rates from the Freddie Mac survey since the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® started in 1971 (15 year in 1991).

The recent increase in rates is pretty small on this long term graph.

Note: Mortgage rates were at or below 5% back in the 1950s.