Sunday Night Futures

I thought US Fiscal Policy was the biggest question mark for 2013, and that fiscal policy posed the biggest downside risk to the US economy (I still think fiscal policy is the biggest risk).

 First there was the "fiscal cliff", and then the threat of default and not paying the bills (aka "debt ceiling"), then "sequestration", followed by the March 27th threat to shut down the government (really just a small portion of the government, but will be very disruptive). As I've noted several times, the deficit is declining fairly quickly, and the key risk is too much deficit reduction too quickly (this can't be repeated enough).

Hopefully something will be worked out to reverse the "sequestration" cuts, and maybe the government shutdown will be avoided ...

From the WaPo: Deal to avert government shutdown likely, officials say

Congress returns to work this week with no plan to reverse across-the-board spending cuts that took effect Friday, but with hope on both sides of the aisle of averting an end-of-the-month showdown that could result in a government shutdown.
...
It would provide funding through the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30 ...

Weekend:
• Summary for Week Ending March 1st
• Schedule for Week of March 3rd

The Asian markets are mixed tonight with the Nikkei up 0.8%, and Shanghai Composite down 1.5%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are down 5 and DOW futures are down 40 (fair value).

Oil prices have moved down a little recently with WTI futures at $90.61 per barrel and Brent at $110.55 per barrel.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are down a few cents over the last week after increasing more than 50 cents per gallon from the low last December.

If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com