RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2013 03:06:00 PM
Friday, May 24, 2013
Lawler: Vegas Housing Market: “Sizzlin’ Hot,” and Yet So Cold
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Dataquick released its April report on Las Vegas home sales based on property records in Clark County, Nevada, and the report portrayed “mixed” news on the health of the Vegas housing market. Here are some summary stats on home sales and median prices, as well as various shares of sales in the report.
| Selected Share of New And Resale Home Sales, Las Vegas | ||
|---|---|---|
| Apr-12 | Apr-13 | |
| Absentee Buyer Share of Total Sales | 50.5% | 53.1% |
| All-Cash Share of Total Sales | 53.6% | 56.6% |
| Foreclosure Share of Resales | 43.7% | 12.2% |
| Estimated Short-Sales Share of Resales | 29.4% | 30.3% |
| Las Vegas-Paradise, Nevada Home Sales | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of sales | Apr-12 | Mar-13 | Apr-13 | YOY % Change |
| Resale houses | 3,233 | 2,998 | 3,309 | 2.4% |
| Resale condos | 807 | 803 | 848 | 5.1% |
| New homes | 510 | 684 | 712 | 39.6% |
| All homes | 4,550 | 4,485 | 4,869 | 7.0% |
| Median sale price | Apr-12 | Mar-13 | Apr-13 | YOY % Change |
| Resale houses | $122,000 | $155,199 | $160,000 | 31.1% |
| Resale condos | $60,000 | $79,995 | $84,948 | 41.6% |
| New homes | $197,320 | $220,000 | $234,981 | 19.1% |
| All homes | $119,000 | $155,000 | $160,000 | 34.5% |
The report also included some stats on buyers of multiple homes, as well as median home prices for absentee-buyer and all-cash home sales.
Based on the share and other data in the report, here are some “derived” stats for home sales by various “cuts.” Also included are partial data for April 2011 based on last year’s report. (Note: The short-sales share for April 2011 is not available, because Dataquick revised its methodology for estimating short sales in the latter part of last year but has not released historical revisions to the public.)
From several perspectives the data suggest that the Vegas market has been “sizzlin’ hot,” mainly reflecting increased buying from investors despite huge declines in the number of “distressed” properties for sale. To others, however, the lack of any growth in homes purchased by folks who plan to live in the purchased home suggests that the Vegas market is disturbingly “cold.”
| April Home Sales, Las Vegas Region | April 2013 vs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr-11 | Apr-12 | Apr-13 | Apr-11 | Apr-12 | |
| Total | 4,490 | 4,550 | 4,869 | 8.4% | 7.0% |
| New | 399 | 510 | 712 | 78.4% | 39.6% |
| Existing | 4,091 | 4,040 | 4,157 | 1.6% | 2.9% |
| Absentee Buyer | 2,128 | 2,298 | 2,585 | 21.5% | 12.5% |
| Primary Residence | 2,362 | 2,252 | 2,284 | -3.3% | 1.4% |
| All-Cash | 2,425 | 2,439 | 2,756 | 13.6% | 13.0% |
| Mortgage Financed | 2,065 | 2,111 | 2,113 | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Foreclosure Resales | 2,279 | 1,765 | 507 | -77.8% | -71.3% |
| Short-Sales Resales | N/A | 1,188 | 1,260 | N/A | 6.1% |
| Distressed Resales | N/A | 2,953 | 1,767 | N/A | -40.2% |
| Ex-Foreclosure Resales | 1,812 | 2,275 | 3,650 | 101.4% | 60.4% |
| Ex-Distressed Resales | N/A | 1,087 | 2,390 | N/A | 119.9% |
| Ex-Foreclosure Total | 2,211 | 2,785 | 4,362 | 97.3% | 56.6% |
| Ex-Distressed Total | N/A | 1,597 | 3,102 | N/A | 94.2% |
| Multi-Home Buyers | N/A | 454 | 813 | N/A | 79.1% |
| 10+ Buyers | N/A | 81 | 360 | N/A | 344.4% |
| Median Sales Price | April 2013 vs | ||||
| Apr-11 | Apr-12 | Apr-13 | Apr-11 | Apr-12 | |
| Resale Home | $125,000 | $122,000 | $160,000 | 28.0% | 31.1% |
| Resale Condo | $61,000 | $60,000 | $84,948 | 39.3% | 41.6% |
| New Home | $190,000 | $197,320 | $234,981 | 23.7% | 19.1% |
| All Homes | $117,000 | $119,000 | $160,000 | 36.8% | 34.5% |
| Absentee | $99,000 | $96,000 | $136,000 | 37.4% | 41.7% |
| All-Cash | $90,000 | $89,900 | $135,000 | 50.0% | 50.2% |
The numbers that have gotten the most attention, of course, are the median sales prices, which are way up from their lows. This partly reflects the huge decline in foreclosure resales, but also reflects continued increases in “absentee” buyer (mostly investor) purchases of homes in Vegas, despite the plunge in the number of foreclosure (as well as overall “distressed”) home sales.
From the standpoint of overall home sales, the recent sales increase despite the sizable drop in “distressed” home sales -- “ex-distressed” home sales this April were up 94.2% from last April – seems rather remarkable. In addition, the sizable jump in new home sales both this year and last year – albeit from extremely low levels – is “encouraging.” What is equally remarkable but less encouraging (at least to some) is that purchases by buyers for their primary residence last month were virtually unchanged from last year, and down from two years ago. Homes purchased by absentee buyers (identified by buyers who indicated that the property tax bill would go to a different address than the property purchased) continued to increase, with the biggest increases coming from buyers who purchased one or more homes, with homes purchased by “entities” that purchased 10 or more homes jumping sharply. (Dataquick notes that some “individuals and partnerships” purchase homes under multiple names, so the “multi-home” buyer numbers may be understated).
CR Note: This was from Tom Lawler.
