by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2013 11:38:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

It would be nice to be a fly on the wall the September FOMC meeting. There is now a strong consensus that QE tapering is inevitable in September. At that meeting the FOMC will be updating its forecasts. Hence, if they do taper, the Fed may have to explain why they are doing it despite the downward revisions in their forecast. That could be quite a tapering tap dance. This is one reason we expect the Fed to delay tapering to December.

It is clear tapering is coming soon, but I also think the Fed will wait until the December meeting.  I could change my mind based on incoming data.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Producer Price Index for June. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).

• At 9:55 AM, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for July). The consensus is for a reading of 84.1 unchanged from June.