by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2013 12:45:00 PM

The Census Bureau released the Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q2 2013 this morning.

This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.

This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.  The Census Bureau is investigating the differences between the HVS, ACS and decennial Census, and analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.

Click on graph for larger image.

The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st 1990, 2000 and 2010. The HVS homeownership rate was unchanged at 65.0% in Q2.

I'd put more weight on the decennial Census numbers and that suggests the actual homeownership rate is probably in the 64% to 65% range - and given changing demographics, the homeownership rate is probably close to a bottom.

The HVS homeowner vacancy rate decreased to 1.9% in Q2 from 2.1% in Q1. 

It isn't really clear what this means. Are these homes becoming rentals?

Once again - this probably shows that the trend is down, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.

The rental vacancy rate declined in Q2 to 8.2%, from 8.6% in Q1.

I think the Reis quarterly survey (large apartment owners only in selected cities) is a much better measure of the rental vacancy rate - and Reis reported that the rental vacancy rate is at the lowest level since 2001.

The quarterly HVS is the most timely survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey. Unfortunately many analysts still use this survey to estimate the excess vacant supply. However this does suggest that most of the bubble excess is behind us.

Earlier on House Prices:
• Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 12.2% year-over-year in May
• Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, Cities