by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2013 02:59:00 PM

In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA and LPS, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.

From FNC: FNC Index: Home Prices Up 0.6% in June; Signs of Sustainable Recovery At Large

The latest FNC Residential Price Index™ (RPI) shows that the U.S. housing recovery continues to take hold with home prices nationwide rising a modest 0.6% in June. The index is reaching a two-year high after rising 16 straight months. The 16-month rising streak has lifted home prices by 7.6% since February 2012─the month in which the housing market bottomed out.

According to the FNC RPI, the pace of the price improvement in the ongoing recovery is much more modest than indicated by a number of other closely watched home price indices, with some of the largest differences seen in the San Francisco, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, Minneapolis, Seattle, and Washington D.C. markets. The difference may be due to these other indices being based on pairs of repeat sales, many of which are distressed properties in a prior sale. Other factors that may impact this divergence include the growing influence of new home sales, which are not included in repeat sales indices, and a disproportionate number of low value home sales relative to the housing stock. As an indicator of the underling home price trend, the FNC RPI excluded distressed sales and includes new home sales.

Housing market fundamentals continue to improve amid a moderately improving economy. Foreclosure sales have dropped to the 2007 levels before the collapse of the housing market—a strong indicator of strengthening conditions on the supply side. In June, foreclosure sales accounted for 13.5% of total home sales, down from 14.3% in May and 18.6% a year ago.

... Based on recorded sales of non-distressed properties (existing and new homes) in the 100 largest metropolitan areas, the FNC 100-MSA composite index shows that June home prices increased from the previous month at a seasonally unadjusted rate of 0.6%. 1On a year-over-year basis, home prices were up a modest 3.7% from a year ago. FNC’s RPI is the mortgage industry’s first hedonic price index built on a comprehensive database that blends public records of residential sales prices with real-time appraisals of property and neighborhood attributes.
emphasis added

Note: This increase is partially seasonal.  This year prices were up 0.6% in June (from May).  Last year, in June 2012, prices were up 0.9% - so this is slower seasonal price appreciation this year.

The year-over-year change slowed in June, with the 100-MSA composite up 3.7% compared to June 2012. The FNC index turned positive on a year-over-year basis in July, 2012.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for the FNC Composite 10, 20, 30 and 100 indexes. Note: The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.  Even with the recent increase, the FNC composite 100 index is still off 27.9% from the peak.

I expect all of the housing price indexes to start showing lower year-over-year prices gains as price increases slow.