by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2013 11:57:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR): AAR Reports Increased Intermodal, Carload Traffic for September and the Week

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported increased total U.S. rail traffic for the month of September 2013, with intermodal and carload volume increasing overall compared with September 2012. Intermodal traffic in September totaled 1,027,522 containers and trailers, up 4.4 percent (43,055 units) compared with September 2012. The weekly average of 256,881 intermodal units in September was the second-highest monthly average of any month in history. The three highest-volume intermodal weeks in history for U.S. railroads occurred last month; only the Labor Day holiday prevented it from being the highest-volume intermodal month in history.
...
“Those who follow the rail industry know that carloads of grain and coal can rise or fall by substantial amounts for reasons that have little or nothing to do with the state of the economy,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. “Not so with most other rail traffic categories, however. The fact that rail carloads excluding coal and grain were up 4.9 percent in September — the biggest year-over-year monthly gain since last December — is a hopeful sign.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows U.S. average weekly rail carloads (NSA).  Green is 2013.

U.S. rail carloads totaled 1,159,784 in September 2013, an average of 289,946 per week and up 0.7% (7,595 carloads) over September 2012. A 0.7% increase isn’t much, but it’s the first time since the end of 2011 that there’ve been two straight months with year-over-year monthly increases in total carloads. With the exception of January, carloads each month in 2013 have tracked 2012 extremely closely....

Carload gains in September 2013 were led by crushed stone, gravel, and sand, which saw carloads up 8,253, or 10.0%, over September 2012 ... The commodity with the largest year-over-year carload decline in September 2013 was coal, which saw carloads fall 12,894 (2.7%) from September 2012.

Note that lumber was up 9.8% from a year ago.

Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

The second graph is for intermodal traffic (using intermodal or shipping containers):

Intermodal traffic is on track for a record year in 2013.

U.S. railroads originated 1,027,522 intermodal containers and trailers in September 2013, an average of 256,881 per week. That’s up 4.4% (43,055 units) over September 2012 and the second-highest monthly average of any month in history. If not for the Labor Day holiday, September would have been the highest-volume intermodal month in history. The fourth week of September had the highest intermodal volume (269,853 units) of any week in history; the second week of September 2013 had the second-highest intermodal volume (265,873 units) in history; and the third week of September had the third-highest intermodal volume (262,897) in history.

Rail traffic and the economy usually grow together, so this is a good sign for the overall economy (at least through September).