by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2013 09:33:00 PM

A quick note: I started the year looking for around 2% GDP growth in 2013, with growth limited by significant fiscal tightening, and I thought the key downside risk was Congress. That looks about right (Congress was unfortunately worse than I expected).

Now I'm starting to look ahead to 2014, and there a few positive signs. Congress is still a downside risk, but I expect some sort of "small ball" budget agreement in December that will minimize the sequester spending cuts in 2014. Also I doubt there will be another government shutdown or debt ceiling showdown since it is an election year (many Congressmen are hoping Americans will forget what just happened).

The economy probably slowed in October - thanks to the House of Representatives - but I expect the economic numbers will start to improve in November or December, and that economic growth will pickup in 2014.  I'll write more about this soon.

Monday:
• At 9:15 AM ET, the Fed is scheduled to release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.0%.

• At 10:00 AM, the NAR will release Pending Home Sales Index for September. The consensus is for a no change in the index.

• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for October will be released. This is the last of the regional Fed surveys. The consensus is a reading of 9.0, up from 12.8 in September (above zero is expansion).

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 27th

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are up 5 and DOW futures are up 45 (fair value).

Oil prices are down with WTI futures at $97.58 per barrel and Brent at $106.94 per barrel.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are around $3.30 per gallon.  If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com