by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2013 09:14:00 PM

From economist Shuyan Wu at Goldman Sachs: "How Much Noise in the October Employment Report?" A couple of excerpts:

Around 800,000 federal employees were furloughed on October 1. The Department of Defense (DoD) brought back roughly 350,000 by October 8, leaving about 450,000 federal employees still out of work during the reference week (Oct 6-12). The recalled DoD workers would be classified as employed; the non-DoD workers would be classified as unemployed on layoff since they did not work during the reference week but were expecting a recall. Assuming the October household sample was representative as usual, an additional 450,000 unemployed persons could add as much as 0.3 percentage points to the unemployment rate.
...
It is difficult to estimate the aggregate impact on private payrolls ...

Any impact on the unemployment rate and hiring would be reversed in the November report. We will have to wait until the December report (early January) for a report without shutdown distortions.

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for September. The consensus is for retail sales to be unchanged in September, and to increase 0.4% ex-autos.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in producer prices (0.1% increase in core).

• At 9:00 AM, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August. Although this is the August report, it is really a 3 month average of June, July and August. The consensus is for a 12.4% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for August.

• At 10:00 AM, Conference Board's consumer confidence index for October. The consensus is for the index to decrease to 75.0 from 79.7.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.