by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2013 05:12:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

The Ryland Group reported that net home orders in the quarter ended September 30, 2013 totaled 1,592, up 5.6% from the comparable quarter of 2012 (which included 7 net orders in areas where operations had been discontinued). The company’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 23.0% last quarter, compared to 19.9% a year ago. The company’s community count at the end of September was up 20.9% from a year ago, and the company’s average sales absorption rate per community last quarter was down about 13% from the comparable quarter of 2012. Home closings totaled 1,883 last quarter, up 42.4% from the comparable quarter of 2012, at an average sales price of $298,000, up 12.9% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of September was 3,376, up 36.5% from last September. Ryland said that its controlled lots at the end of September totaled 39,698, up 49.1% from last September.

Standard Pacific Homes reported that net home orders (ex jvs) in the quarter ended September 30, 2013 totaled 1,110, up 12.2% from the comparable quarter of 2012. The company’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 19.7% last quarter, compared to 14.0% a year ago. The company’s average community count last quarter was up 7.7% from a year ago. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 1,217, up 41.3% from the comparable quarter of 2012, at an average sales price of $420,000, up 13.8% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of September was 2,165, up 55.3% from last September. The company controlled 35,643 lots (including jvs) at the end of September, up 18.2% from a year ago.

Here is a summary of selected stats released so far by large, publicly-traded builders.

	Net Orders			Settlements			Average Closing Price
Qtr. Ended:	9/30/13	9/30/12	% Chg	9/30/13	9/30/12	% Chg	9/30/13	9/30/12	% Chg
Pulte Group	3,781	4,544	-16.8%	4,817	4,418	9.0%	$310,000	$279,000	11.1%
NVR	2,381	2,558	-6.9%	3,342	2,656	25.8%	$349,200	$321,700	8.5%
The Ryland Group	1,592	1,507	5.6%	1,883	1,322	42.4%	$298,000	$264,000	12.9%
Standard Pacific	1,110	989	12.2%	1,217	861	41.3%	$420,000	$369,000	13.8%
Meritage Homes	1,300	1,204	8.0%	1,418	1,197	18.5%	$341,000	$280,000	21.8%
MDC Holdings	924	1,008	-8.3%	1,257	1,039	21.0%	$345,000	$320,647	7.6%
M/I Homes	869	757	14.8%	937	746	25.6%	$284,000	$266,000	6.8%
Total	11,957	12,567	-4.9%	14,871	12,239	21.5%	$330,568	$295,818	11.7%

The YOY % change in net orders for the above seven builders for the quarter ended June 30, 2013 was +11.5%. Net orders for the latest quarter were down 25.0% from the previous quarter, compared to a sequential quarterly decline of 12.1% a year ago.

Builder results so far strongly indicate that the combination of higher mortgage rates and aggressive home price increases resulted in a significant slowdown in new home sales last quarter. While the relationship between large builder results and Census estimates for new home sales is far from perfect (partly reflecting market-share changes but also reflecting methodological and timing differences), these builder results suggest that Census estimates for new SF home sales for September (re-scheduled for release, along with estimates for October, on December 4th), could be down sharply from August.
emphasis added