by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2013 08:43:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9% from October 2012. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $428.1 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent from the previous month, and 3.9 percent above October 2012. ...The August to September 2013 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent to virtually unchanged.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 29.1% from the bottom, and now 13.2% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

Retail sales ex-autos increased 0.2%. 

Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 26.5% from the bottom, and now 13.8% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 5.4% on a YoY basis (3.9% for all retail sales).

This was above the consensus forecast of no change for retail sales.