by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2014 03:04:00 PM
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased "at a moderate pace" in Most Districts
Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and based on information collected on or before January 6, 2014."
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest economic activity continued to expand across most regions and sectors from late November through the end of the year. Nine Districts indicated the local economy was expanding at a moderate pace; among these, the Atlanta and Chicago Districts saw conditions improve compared with the previous reporting period. Boston and Philadelphia cited modest growth, while Kansas City reported the economy held steady in December. The economic outlook is positive in most Districts, with some reports citing expectations of "more of the same" and some expecting a pickup in growth.And on real estate:
Most Districts reported increases in home sales in the closing months of 2013 compared with last year, but the Atlanta, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts indicated that year-over-year residential sales growth had slowed relative to earlier quarters in 2013. The Boston, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and Dallas reports noted that at least some areas within those Districts saw home sales below year-earlier levels. Home selling prices continued their upward trend in the Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts, while remaining stable in the Cleveland and Richmond Districts; New York noted mixed changes in sale prices across the District. Residential construction saw slight to moderate increases in most Districts; by contrast, Dallas cited a slight decline, New York reported no change, and Cleveland cited strong growth. Notwithstanding its decrease in overall residential construction, the Dallas District noted elevated construction levels for multi-family units; the Atlanta, Cleveland, and Chicago Districts also cited strong multifamily construction. Reporting Districts indicated that residential real estate contacts remained optimistic looking forward, while voicing concerns about declining inventory and potential changes in the mortgage market. The Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts reported that contacts expected residential construction to pick up in the near term.Some pretty positive comments on real estate. This is a minor upgrade to the previous beige book.
District reports on commercial real estate contained much good news, although performance within some Districts was uneven across locations and property types. ... Excepting the New York and Dallas Districts, which gave no information on recent construction, all other Districts reported increases in commercial construction activity in recent weeks. In the Boston and Richmond Districts, construction activity increased in the education and healthcare sectors. A significant number of commercial high-rise structures are being built (or planned) in the San Francisco District. Information concerning the commercial real estate outlook was largely positive where it was reported. Contacts in the Boston, Atlanta, and Kansas City Districts were optimistic that commercial real estate fundamentals would continue to improve at least slowly in 2014. The outlook for commercial construction activity was positive in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts.
emphasis added