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Thursday, January 16, 2014

Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment, JOLTS

by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2014 09:00:00 PM

First, here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. From CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Prices Post Steady Gains in November

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICES CONTINUED THEIR STEADY UPWARD TRAJECTORY IN NOVEMBER: With the U.S. economy on more solid footing during the fourth quarter of 2013 and demand for commercial real estate space on the rise, pricing continued on a steady upward trajectory in November 2013. The two broadest measures of aggregate pricing for commercial properties within the CCRSI—the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index—advanced by 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively in November 2013, and rose by a more robust 10.9% and 7.8%, respectively, over the last year.
...
ABSORPTION EXPANDS AT FASTEST RATE SINCE 2007: Tenants occupied an additional 380 million square feet of office, retail and industrial space throughout the U.S. in 2013, the largest annual gain in net absorption over the past six years. The Investment Grade segment of the market continued to dominate in space absorption. However, the pace of absorption in the General Commercial segment has improved significantly as the recovery is accelerating in the secondary and tertiary markets. The General Commercial segment’s share of total net absorption increased from being less than 30% for the last several years to 32% in 2013.
...
DISTRESS SALES REMAIN LOW: The percentage of commercial property selling at distressed prices was slightly more than 13% in November 2013, down roughly two-thirds from the peak in 2011. Technology and energy-driven markets including Houston, Denver, Dallas, and Austin have experienced some of the strongest declines in the share of distress property sales activity over the last year, with a reduction of 80% or more.
emphasis added
Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 985 thousand (SAAR) in December.

• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.1%.

• At 9:55 AM, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for January). The consensus is for a reading of 83.5, up from 82.5 in December.

• At 10:00 AM, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.