by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2014 07:01:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 11.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 10, 2014. The previous week’s results included an adjustment for the New Year’s holiday. ...

The Refinance Index increased 11 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent from one week earlier, but is at a level similar to what was observed in mid-November 2013. ...
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to 4.66 percent from 4.72 percent, with points increasing to 0.33 from 0.28 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index.

The refinance index is down sharply - and down 70% from the levels in early May.

With the rate increases, refinance activity will be significantly in 2014.


The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  

The 4-week average of the purchase index is now down about 8% from a year ago.

The purchase index is probably understating purchase activity because small lenders tend to focus on purchases, and those small lenders are underrepresented in the purchase index.