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Thursday, February 13, 2014

Friday: Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment

by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2014 09:22:00 PM

First, here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. From CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Pricing Gains Momentum in 2013

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE RECOVERY ADVANCES IN 2013: The recovery in U.S. commercial real estate advanced in 2013 as broad gains in net absorption, rents, sales activity and pricing extended across markets and property types. Driven by steady economic growth and solid job gains of 2.2 million in 2013, aggregate net absorption across the four major property types was the highest since the recovery began. Meanwhile, new supply remained well in hand, with the exception of the multifamily property sector, which has seen a notable increase in new construction. Vacancy rates fell across the board, reaching new cyclical lows in both the apartment and industrial sectors over the last year.
...
RENTS TRENDING UP AS VACANCY DECLINES: The improvement in market fundamentals has tilted pricing power in the favor of landlords. Rents have surged 14% from the trough of the cycle in the apartment market, with more modest rent recoveries of near 6% in the office and industrial segments since bottoming out in late 2010/early 2011. Even the beleaguered retail property sector, which experienced rent losses into 2012, saw a turnaround in the last year, with retail rents growing a modest 1.9% in 2013. Investor demand for all commercial property types also remained strong, as overall sales volume increased 16% from 2012.
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IMPROVING MARKET FUNDAMENTALS FUEL PRICING GAINS: The two broadest measures of commercial property pricing in the CCRSI, the U.S. value-weighted index and U.S. equal-weighted index, each posted strong gains of 11.2% and 7.6%, respectively, in 2013. Reflecting the stronger price appreciation of larger properties in core markets, pricing in the value-weighted index has now risen to within 5.5% below the previous peak level set in 2007. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted index, which is more heavily influenced by smaller transactions, is still 25% below the prior peak
emphasis added
Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.

Friday:
• At 9:15 AM ET, the The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.3%.

• At 9:55 AM, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for February). The consensus is for a reading of 80.0, down from 81.2 in January.