by Calculated Risk on 2/19/2014 07:01:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 14, 2014. ...

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from one week earlier and is at its lowest level since September of 2011. ...

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to 4.50 percent from 4.45 percent, with points decreasing to 0.26 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,000) increased to 4.45 percent from 4.40 percent, with points decreasing to 0.11 from 0.14 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index.

The refinance index is down 68% from the levels in May 2013.

With the mortgage rate increases, refinance activity will be significantly lower in 2014 than in 2013.


The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  

The 4-week average of the purchase index is now down about 15% from a year ago - and the weekly purchase index is at the lowest level since September 2011.

The purchase index is probably understating purchase activity because small lenders tend to focus on purchases, and those small lenders are underrepresented in the purchase index - but this is still very weak.

Note: Interesting that Jumbo rates are still below conforming rates.