by Calculated Risk on 3/05/2014 07:01:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 9.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 28, 2014. ...

The Refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. ...

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was 6 percent higher than its level two weeks earlier, but was still 19 percent lower than the same week one year ago. Despite the increase observed this week, the Refinance Index is still 3 percent lower than it was two weeks ago.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to 4.47 percent from 4.53 percent, with points decreasing to 0.28 from 0.31 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,000) decreased to 4.37 percent from 4.47 percent, with points increasing to 0.20 from 0.13 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index.

The refinance index is down 69% from the levels in May 2013.

With the mortgage rate increases, refinance activity will be significantly lower in 2014 than in 2013.


The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  

The 4-week average of the purchase index is now down about 17% from a year ago.

The purchase index is probably understating purchase activity because small lenders tend to focus on purchases, and those small lenders are underrepresented in the purchase index - but this is still very weak.

Note: Jumbo rates are still below conforming rates.