by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2014 08:55:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.3% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 1.5% from February 2013. Sales in December and January were revised down from a 0.4% decrease to a 0.6% decrease. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $427.2 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent from the previous month, and 1.5 percent above February 2013. ... The December 2013 to January 2014 percent change was revised from -0.4 percent to -0.6 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).


Retail sales ex-autos increased 0.3%. 

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 2.2% on a YoY basis (1.5% for all retail sales).

The increase in February was above consensus expectations, but the downward revisions to December and January were negatives.

However, it appears much of the weakness in January and February was due to the weather.