by Calculated Risk on 3/17/2014 08:39:00 PM

A reminder of a friendly bet I made with NDD on housing starts in 2014:

If starts or sales are up at least 20% YoY in any month in 2014, [NDD] will make a $100 donation to the charity of Bill's choice, which he has designated as the Memorial Fund in honor of his late co-blogger, Tanta. If housing permits or starts are down 100,000 YoY at least once in 2014, he make a $100 donation to the charity of my choice, which is the Alzheimer's Association.

Of course, with the terms of the bet, we could both "win" at some point during the year. (I expect to "win" in a few months, but not now due to the severe weather and limited starts and sales in many parts of the country).

In February 2013, starts were at a 969 thousand seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). For me to win, starts would have to be up 20% or at 1.162 million SAAR in February (not gonna happen). For NDD to win, starts would have to fall to 869 thousand SAAR (possible). NDD could also "win" if permits fall to 852 thousand SAAR from 952 thousand SAAR in February 2013.

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Consumer Price Index for February. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in CPI in January and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for February. Total housing starts were at 880 thousand (SAAR) in January. Single family starts were at 573 thousand SAAR in January. The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 915 thousand (SAAR) in February.