by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2014 05:45:00 PM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for February. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for January. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Rise by 12.2 Percent Year Over Year in February

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 12.2 percent in February 2014 compared to February 2013. This change represents 24 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 0.8 percent in February 2014 compared to January 2014.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 10.7 percent in February 2014 compared to February 2013 and 0.9 percent month over month compared to January 2014.

... the forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to increase 10.5 percent year over year from March 2013 to March 2014.

“As the spring home-buying season kicks off, house price appreciation continues to be strong,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Although prices should remain strong in the near term due to a short supply of homes on the market, price increases should moderate over the next year as home equity releases pent-up supply.”

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 0.8% in January, and is up 12.2% over the last year.  This index is not seasonally adjusted, so this was a strong month-to-month gain during the "weak" season.

The index is off 16.9% from the peak - and is up 23.5% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012.

The second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for twenty four consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed early in 2012 on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).

I expect the year-over-year increases to slow - and it may show up soon since CoreLogic is forecasting a smaller year-over-year increase for March index.