by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2014 09:05:00 PM

The retail sales report released this morning was solid, but some of the strength was probably some bounce-back from the severe winter weather. Still the economy will probably be stronger in 2014 than in 2013.

From the LA Times: Surging retail sales signal an economy on the upswing

"We are inclined to view March strength as part of a normalization from a very weak winter, particularly December and January," Credit Suisse analysts wrote in a note to clients Monday.
...
"It's a bit early to put too much weight on the retail sales number," [Standard & Poor's analyst Diya Iyer] said. "We're hearing from a lot of companies that same-store sales aren't great."
...
Economists had also braced for retail sales to take more of a hit from a calendar shift that pushed Easter into April this year after helping to pad sales in March 2013.

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Consumer Price Index for March. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in CPI in February and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 7.5, up from 5.6 in March (above zero is expansion).

• At 8:45 AM, Speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Opening Remarks, At the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Conference: 2014 Financial Markets Conference, Stone Mountain, Georgia.

• At 10:00 AM, the April NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 50, up from 47 in March. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.