by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2014 06:54:00 PM

From Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawsey: FOMC Preview: A Bit Brighter

The April FOMC meeting will probably be a quiet one compared with the March meeting, with no press conference or Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) to be released. We anticipate that the Fed will want to make relatively few changes to the statement, especially in the monetary policy paragraphs. The largest changes will probably occur in the first paragraph on economic activity, reflecting the passing drag from adverse weather.
...
Regarding the FOMC's policy decision, a further $10bn/month tapering of asset purchases is almost a foregone conclusion, split equally between Treasuries and MBS. This would bring the monthly purchase amount down to $45bn ($25bn Treasuries and $20bn MBS), to take effect in May. ...

It appears likely that Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota—who lodged a dovish dissent at the March meeting—will not dissent to the April statement, based on a recent interview.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 210,000 payroll jobs added in April, up from 191,000 in March.

• At 8:30 AM, Q1 GDP (advance estimate). This is the advance estimate of Q1 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.1% annualized in Q1.

• At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April. The consensus is for an increase to 56.9, up from 55.9 in March.

• At 2:00 PM, the FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change in interest rates is expected (for a long time). However the FOMC is expected to reduce QE3 asset purchases by $10 billion per month at this meeting.