by Calculated Risk on 5/08/2014 11:41:00 AM

This is a quarterly index from the the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and is similar to the overall housing market index (HMI). The NAHB started this index in Q4 2008, so the readings have been very low.  Note that this index is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

From the NAHB: Single-family 55+ HMI Rises to Highest First Quarter Reading Since 2008

Builder confidence in the single-family 55+ housing market for the first quarter of 2014 is up year over year, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) latest 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Compared to the first quarter of 2013, the single-family index increased 4 points to a level of 50, which is the highest first-quarter reading since the inception of the index in 2008 and the 10th consecutive quarter of year over year improvements.
...
Two of the components of the 55+ single-family HMI posted increases from a year ago: present sales rose six points to 52 and expected sales for the next six months climbed nine points to 62. Meanwhile, traffic of prospective buyers held steady at a reading of 41.
...
“The 55+ segment of the housing market is stronger now than it was a year ago,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, “helped by factors like rising house prices, which has increased owners’ equity and allowed them to buy in a 55+ community. But there are still some headwinds hampering a stronger recovery, as builders in many markets are facing tight credit conditions and a lack of lots and labor.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB 55+ HMI through Q1 2014.  The index was unchanged in Q1 at 50 - however the index is up year-over-year.  This indicates that about the same numbers builders view conditions as good than as  poor.


There are two key drivers: 1) there is a large cohort moving into the 55+ group, and 2) the homeownership rate typically increases for people in the 55 to 70 year old age group. So demographics should be favorable for the 55+ market.