by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2014 03:46:00 PM

As follow-up to my previous post, earlier today the Census Bureau released the population estimates by age for 2013: As the Nation Ages, Seven States Become Younger, Census Bureau Reports

The median age declined in seven states between 2012 and 2013, including five in the Great Plains, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released today. In contrast, the median age for the U.S. as a whole ticked up from 37.5 years to 37.6 years.

I think the headline should have been something like: Baby Boomers lose Title as Largest 5-Year Cohort!

Note: This is a positive for apartments, see: The Favorable Demographics for Apartments and Apartments: Supply and Demand

The table below shows the top 11 cohorts by size for 2010, 2013 (released today), and Census Bureau projections for 2020 and 2030.

As I noted earlier, by 202 8 of the top 10 cohorts will be  under 40 (the Boomers will be fading away), and by 2030 the top 11 cohorts will be the youngest 11 cohorts (the reason I included 11 cohorts).

As the graph in the previous post indicated, even without the financial crisis we would have expected some slowdown in growth this decade (just based on demographics).  The good news is that will change soon.

There will be plenty of "gray hairs" walking around in 2020 and 2030, but the key for the economy is the population in the prime working age will be increasing again soon.

Population: Largest 5-Year Cohorts by Year
Largest Cohorts	2010	2013	2020	2030
1	45 to 49 years	20 to 24 years	25 to 29 years	35 to 39 years
2	50 to 54 years	50 to 54 years	30 to 34 years	40 to 44 years
3	15 to 19 years	25 to 29 years	35 to 39 years	30 to 34 years
4	20 to 24 years	30 to 34 years	Under 5 years	25 to 29 years
5	25 to 29 years	45 to 49 years	55 to 59 years	5 to 9 years
6	40 to 44 years	55 to 59 years	20 to 24 years	10 to 14 years
7	10 to 14 years	15 to 19 years	5 to 9 years	Under 5 years
8	5 to 9 years	40 to 44 years	60 to 64 years	15 to 19 years
9	Under 5 years	10 to 14 years	15 to 19 years	20 to 24 years
10	35 to 39 years	5 to 9 years	10 to 14 years	45 to 49 years
11	30 to 34 years	Under 5 years	50 to 54 years	50 to 54 years