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Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2014 07:24:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for May will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.6% in May, and to increase 0.4% ex-autos.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 309 thousand from 312 thousand.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for April. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories.

Also here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow.  From CoStar: Property Price Gains In April Strongest At High End Of Market

•HIGH-END CRE PROPERTIES ENJOY BIGGEST PRICING GAINS IN APRIL: Bolstered by continued demand for large, core properties, the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index advanced by 2% in April 2014, while the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which is more heavily influenced by smaller, second-tier properties, declined by 0.8% for the same month. In particular, average sale prices for core multifamily and office properties in major markets have soared well above their 2006–07 average as investors continued to aggressively pursue those types of properties. This investment activity is reflected in the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which has recovered to within 2.2% of its prior peak level in September of 2007, while the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index sits 21.9% below its prior peak.
...
DISTRESS SALES CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE: As market fundamentals and liquidity have improved, the distress percentage of total observed sale pair counts declined to just 10.6% through the first four months of 2014, down from 16.6% for the same timeframe in 2013 and down 32% from the bottom of the market in 2010.
emphasis added
Commercial Real Estate Prices Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from CoStar shows the Equal and Value Weighted indexes through April.  The value-weighted index is almost back to the pre-recession peak.

Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.