by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2014 02:00:00 PM

The Treasury released the May Monthly Treasury Statement today. The Treasury reported a $130 billion deficit in May 2014, down from $138 billion in May 2013. For fiscal year 2014 through May, the deficit was $436 billion compared to $626 billion for the same period in fiscal 2013.

In April, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their new Updated Budget Projections: 2014 to 2024. The projected budget deficits were reduced for each of the next ten years, and the projected deficit for 2014 was revised down from 3.0% to 2.8%.  Based on the Treasury release today, I expect the deficit for fiscal 2014 to be lower than the current CBO projection.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the actual (purple) budget deficit each year as a percent of GDP, and an estimate for the next ten years based on estimates from the CBO.

The deficit should decline further next year.

The decline in the deficit, as a percent of GDP, from almost 10% to under 3% in 2014 is the fastest decline in the deficit since the demobilization following WWII (not shown on graph).