by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2014 07:31:00 PM

A reminder of a friendly bet I made with NDD on housing starts in 2014 (I've already "won", and NDD made a donation to the Tanta Memorial Fund - but he could still win too):

If starts or sales are up at least 20% YoY in any month in 2014, [NDD] will make a $100 donation to the charity of Bill's choice, which he has designated as the Memorial Fund in honor of his late co-blogger, Tanta. If housing permits or starts are down 100,000 YoY at least once in 2014, he make a $100 donation to the charity of my choice, which is the Alzheimer's Association.

In May 2013, starts were at a 915 thousand seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). For me to win again (only one win counts), starts would have to be up 20% or at 1.098 million SAAR in May (possible). For NDD to win, starts would have to fall to 815 thousand SAAR (not likely). NDD could also "win" if permits fall to 910 thousand SAAR from 1.010 million SAAR in May 2013.

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for May. Total housing starts were at 1.072 million (SAAR) in April. Single family starts were at 649 thousand SAAR in April. The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 1.036 million (SAAR) in May.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Consumer Price Index for May. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI in May and for core CPI to increase 0.2%.