by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2014 08:39:00 PM
Thursday, June 26, 2014
Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to slow further year-over-year in May
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released Tuesday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.
From Zillow: Case-Shiller Indices Will Continue to Show More Marked Slowdowns
he Case-Shiller data for April 2014 came out this morning (research brief here), and based on this information and the May 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, released June 22), we predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (May 2014) will show that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City Composite Home Price Index and the NSA 10-City Composite Home Price Index increased by 9.6 percent and 9.7 percent on a year-over-year basis, respectively. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from April to May will be 0.4 percent for both the 20-City Composite Index and the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for May will not be released until Tuesday, July 29.So the Case-Shiller index will probably show another strong year-over-year gain in May, but lower than in April (10.8% year-over-year).
Zillow May 2014 Forecast for Case-Shiller Index | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Case Shiller Composite 10 | Case Shiller Composite 20 | ||||
NSA | SA | NSA | SA | ||
Case Shiller (year ago) | May 2013 | 169.47 | 170.00 | 156.06 | 156.52 |
Case-Shiller (last month) | Apr 2014 | 183.28 | 186.46 | 168.71 | 171.73 |
Zillow Forecast | YoY | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% |
MoM | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
Zillow Forecasts1 | 185.9 | 186.8 | 171.1 | 172.0 | |
Current Post Bubble Low | 146.45 | 149.86 | 134.07 | 137.14 | |
Date of Post Bubble Low | Mar-12 | Feb-12 | Mar-12 | Jan-12 | |
Above Post Bubble Low | 26.9% | 24.7% | 27.6% | 25.4% | |
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts |