by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2014 07:35:00 PM
Wednesday, July 02, 2014
Thursday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims, ISM Service
Thursday will feel like a Friday - all day!
Thursday:
• Early, Reis Q2 2014 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for June. The consensus is for an increase of 211,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June, down from the 217,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in May. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 6.3% in May.
• Also at 8:30 AM, the Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $45.1 billion in May from $47.2 billion in April.
• Also at 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 314 thousand from 312 thousand.
• At 10:00 AM, ISM non-Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for a reading of 56.2, down from 56.3 in May. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion.
Here is a table of the annual change in total nonfarm and private sector payrolls jobs since 1999. The last three years have been near the best since 1999 (2005 was the best year for total nonfarm, and 2011 the best for private jobs).
Note: "2014" shows the annualized pace through May.
It is possible that 2014 will be the best year since 1999 for both total nonfarm and private sector employment.
Change in Payroll Jobs per Year (000s) | ||
---|---|---|
Total, Nonfarm | Private | |
1999 | 3,177 | 2,716 |
2000 | 1,946 | 1,682 |
2001 | -1,735 | -2,286 |
2002 | -508 | -741 |
2003 | 105 | 147 |
2004 | 2,033 | 1,886 |
2005 | 2,506 | 2,320 |
2006 | 2,085 | 1,876 |
2007 | 1,140 | 852 |
2008 | -3,576 | -3,756 |
2009 | -5,087 | -5,013 |
2010 | 1,058 | 1,277 |
2011 | 2,083 | 2,400 |
2012 | 2,236 | 2,294 |
2013 | 2,331 | 2,365 |
20141 | 2,563 | 2,527 |
1 2014 is the hiring pace through May. |