by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2014 08:59:00 PM

A reminder of a friendly bet I made with NDD on housing starts in 2014 (I've already "won", and NDD made a donation to the Tanta Memorial Fund - but he could still win too):

If starts or sales are up at least 20% YoY in any month in 2014, [NDD] will make a $100 donation to the charity of Bill's choice, which he has designated as the Memorial Fund in honor of his late co-blogger, Tanta. If housing permits or starts are down 100,000 YoY at least once in 2014, he make a $100 donation to the charity of my choice, which is the Alzheimer's Association.

In June 2013, starts were at a 831 thousand seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). For me to win again (only one win counts), starts would have to be up 20% or at 997.2 thousand SAAR in June (very possible). For NDD to win, starts would have to fall to 731 thousand SAAR (not likely). NDD could also "win" if permits fall to 838 thousand SAAR from 938 thousand SAAR in June 2013.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for June. Total housing starts were at 1.001 million (SAAR) in May. Single family starts were at 625 thousand SAAR in May. The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 1.020 million (SAAR) in June.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 310 thousand from 304 thousand.

• At 10:00 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 15.5, down from 17.8 last month (above zero indicates expansion).