by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2014 07:45:00 PM

A glass half empty view from Mark Hanson: Lack of Defaults/Foreclosures/Short Sales; A Serious Housing & Spending Headwind

Most think of the effects of foreclosures & short sales (distressed) only in the first derivative…that they are bad for housing and prices. As such, bullish leaning headlines of plunging defaults, foreclosures and short sales over the past two years are everywhere, often.

Some journalists and bloggers actually follow and publish the data weekly presenting them as further irrefutable evidence that “this” is the real “recovery”. But, of course, when it comes to new-era housing what instinctively sounds like a positive, or negative, is more often than not the exact opposite. And what’s ironic is that the lagging default, foreclosure, and short sale data they publish in the bullish sense is actually leading indicating data of a bearish trend-reversal in housing happening right now, which will lead to the third stimulus “hangover” in the past seven years.

So, the next time you see the headline “Mortgage Defaults (or Foreclosures) at a 6-year Low!!!” you might want to say to yourself “humm, that’s a real problem for purchase demand, house prices, construction labor, materials, appliance sales” and so on.

Bottom line: When it comes to defaults, foreclosures and short sales and how they really fit into the macro housing and economic mosaic less is bad. Foreclosures and short sales “were” a significant housing and macro economic tailwind that drove transactions, prices, home improvement retail, labor, materials, and durable goods sales, which now — down 75% since 2012 — have turned into a stiff headwind.

I like Mark, but how do we get from the crisis phase of the housing bust to a more normal market without seeing fewer foreclosures and short sales? It isn't possible.  


Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May. Although this is the May report, it is really a 3 month average of March, April and May. The consensus is for a 9.9% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for May.

• At 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for July. The consensus is for the index to increase to 85.5 from 85.2.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Q2 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to report on the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, this report doesn't track with other measures (like the decennial Census and the ACS).