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Monday, August 18, 2014

CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased 10% year-over-year in June

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2014 05:52:00 PM

Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. 

From CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Prices Steadily Advance In Second Quarter

CCRSI COMPOSITE PRICE INDICES ADVANCED STEADILY IN SECOND QUARTER. Despite a modest pull-back in June 2014, CCRSI’s value-weighted U.S. Composite Index advanced 2.3% in the second quarter of 2014, and 9.7% for the 12-month period ending in June 2014. Reflecting the impact of larger, core-like property sales, the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index is now in line with its prerecession highs reached in 2007. The equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which tracks smaller, more numerous property trades typical of those in secondary markets, is now beginning to catch up with its value-weighted counterpart. It advanced 2.4% in the second quarter and 10% for the 12 months ending in June 2014.
...
PROPERTY SALES ACTIVITY ESCALATES. Boosted by a strong second quarter, repeat sale transaction volume reached nearly $39.3 billion in the first half of 2014 , an increase of 14.5% from the first half of 2013, and roughly on a par with the first half-year totals reached in 2006-07. Repeat-sale pair volume increased 8.8% in the Investment Grade segment and 27.2% in the General Commercial in the first half of 2014 over the same period one year earlier. Meanwhile, only 8.7% of properties are selling at distressed pricing as of the second quarter of 2014 — the lowest distress sales rate since the fourth quarter of 2008.
emphasis added
Commercial Real Estate Prices Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from CoStar shows the the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index indexes.

 The value weighted index is almost back to the pre-recession peak, but the equal weighted is still well below the pre-recession peak.

Commercial Real Estate Prices The second graph shows the percent of distressed "pairs".

The distressed share is down from over 30% at the peak, to 8.7% in June.

Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.