by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2014 02:45:00 PM

Based on an WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 16.4 million SAAR in July. That is up 5% from July 2013, and down 2.5% from the 16.9 million annual sales rate last month.

This was below the consensus forecast of 16.7 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for July (red, light vehicle sales of 16.4 million SAAR from WardsAuto).

Note: AutoData estimates sales at 16.48 million SAAR for July.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

Unlike residential investment, auto sales bounced back fairly quickly following the recession and were a key driver of the recovery - although sales growth will slow this year.

Sales have average close to 16.5 million over the last five months following a weak winter due to severe weather.