by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2014 04:30:00 PM

Here is a minor indicator that I follow, from ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Increased 1.6% in August to New Record High

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.6% in August, following a gain of 1.5% the previous month. In August, the index equaled 132.6 (2000=100) versus 130.5 in July. August’s index is the highest on record, surpassing November 2013 (131.0).

Compared with August 2013, the SA index increased 4.5%, up from July’s 3.7% year-over-year gain. The latest year-over-year increase was the largest this year. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage is up 3.1%. ...

“After a strong July, factory production and housing starts fell in August on a month-to-month basis,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Truck tonnage actually did the opposite. Not only did it increase, it accelerated.”

Costello stated that tonnage is up 3.1% over the last two months alone and has surged 6.8% since hitting a recent low in January.

“I’m optimistic about the second half of the year for the economy, which means truck tonnage should do well too,” he said.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index.

The index is now up 4.5% year-over-year.